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Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that split the country and caused chaos, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is ready.

That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Institutions Not Ready

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."

Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate

The team have analysed the political, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What troubles everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."

Constitutional Provision

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there might be a national vote.

Lack of Serious Debate

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of serious debate, said McBride.

"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but very few politicians or campaigners want to engage even with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the volume, no writer endorses unity or the existing arrangement. They writes two essays that seek objectivity in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.

Debates cover flags and symbols, levies, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and stimulate conversation.

"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated the writer. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they support unification but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"The Irish government should determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.

Possibility of Referendum

McBride considers a referendum in his generation is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"

Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate arguments, he said. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will in the end lose but each side has possesses important lessons to learn from the opposing arguments."

Call for More Extensive Discussion

Westminster should join the discussion, said the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."